Learning to Adapt in the “MUCHNESS” of the Present: A Conversation

The momentum of change and of disruption is so fast and massive today that the old acronym for a changing world, VUCA (for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity), is itself outdated. There is even more than VUCA occurring. BANI is the new popular descriptor, underscoring a greater depth of chaos and complexity, represented in: Brittle, Anxious, Non-Linear and Incomprehensible. It’s a mouthful of unappealing adjectives, the evidence for which are swarming all around in the form of geopolitical tensions, augmenting economic insecurity (especially, at present, the constant threat of tariffs), AI integration, climate change, and more.

If there was ever a time for adaptive leadership, it certainly is now. To help us understand this, our own Lindsay Trout reached out to one of the world’s leading voices on adaptability, Zander Grashow, who co-authored The Practice of Adaptive Leadership in 2009, and who has been advising leaders for the last two decades as founder and CEO of Adaptive Leadership+. Below are the highlights of the conversation.

Lindsay Trout: BANI is an acronym with some pretty colorful terminology. How are you thinking about the forces at play in today’s world?

Zander Grashow: We can name all the big forces at play, but what I am really interested in is the cross-contamination that occurs between those forces. How are the geo-politics affecting mental health, which is affecting social media habits, which is affecting the dissolution of traditional media, and so on. The cause and effect appear less linear, and the leverage points are harder to grasp.  

It is clear to everyone that we are living in adaptive times. At the time when we wrote The Practice of Adaptive Leadership, it would take a paragraph to explain the need to adapt, now it can be done with a sentence, which is usually accompanied by some kind of sigh and indication of foreboding. In other words, people share the belief that we need to adapt, that our current model is broken and unsustainable, and yet they do not have enough clarity as to how to move forward. 

Whether we call it BANI, VUCA or, as I have been calling it lately, “THE MUCHNESS,” there is a lot going on that is demanding the best of ourselves to step forward and meet the moment. Many are actively figuring out how to live within their values at this time, others are hiding out, naively waiting for it to pass, and others are hoping someone else will figure out what to do. 

Lindsay: I couldn’t agree more. Working in a global context, as an American and living in Silicon Valley, I see tectonic plates shifting in a new 3d puzzle arrangement. The mental metaphor that comes to me stems from my very limited and early understanding of physics, whereby p=mv or momentum is mass [scale] x velocity [speed]. And, boy, are both variables of significance now.

So, how do we react to the mass and velocity of these times?

Zander: The future belongs to those who adapt. It always has. Luckily, humans have an amazing ability to adapt. Our entire existence is the consequence of our previous adaptations. Just look at your own history, your ancestors’ history, and who you are now.

Instead, we need to each discern what to keep and what to grow into at the pace required by our circumstances. Answering these questions, with many others, has been the joy of my life’s work. 

In doing this, we would be smart to look at two other things. First, the difference between adaptive and maladaptive responses. Where are we responding in ways that give us more possibilities and wellness and where, conversely, we are constricting and limiting what is possible?

Second, we as humans can deliberately adapt. What do we need to deliberately grow into next? What specific skill prepares us for what we need to address? Some of the common considerations now are: dexterity with ambiguity or conflict, systemic and long-term thinking, new forms of human organization, countering misinformation, and responses to the consolidation of power.
Everyone needs to be actively training. Growing into the next version of themselves.

Lindsay: Do you think this is “the most adaptive of all times”?

Zander: I often get this question—absolutely not. We were once battling Neanderthals for existence, and we lived through plagues, slavery, world war… And yet, it’s fair to call our era a period of “Great Adaptation,” because, as you pointed out in your p=mv physics equation, the forces shaping today’s world are both of high magnitude and speed. I do believe that the simultaneous forces of climate change and AI & tech advancements are in and of themselves changing the pace of adaptation. To make it more complicated, the components of our world—from changing markets, to geopolitics, to the “attention merchants” of social media and more—cross contaminate each other at a faster rate. As such, the great risk managers of our times have more vectors to analyze, many of which they were not trained in. 

Lindsay: So, for today’s focus—if BANI is assumed true—let’s apply it and talk about Adaptive and Mal-Adaptive Strategies for each component. Starting with “Brittle” which I understand as amplified fragility and volatility. I see this as systems many of us have known that are indeed changing, such as resource interdependencies, the notion of technology as workforce, etc.

Zander: There are at least two considerations we should take into account when thinking about “brittleness.” First, the ability to withstand current pressure, and second, the ability to evolve responsively into a new iteration of species. Surprisingly for some, stable success of the incumbents does not always breed this adaptive capacity. Large, well-developed organizations need a special set of strategies and talents to evolve. Our instincts are most often reactive. 

Lindsay: Very interesting. In fact, unfortunately, I see many leaders with selective blinders on and a fixation on short termism that is troubling. There are derivative implications to today’s decisions, and I do wonder if leaders are appropriately taking responsibility for the long-term.

Zander: Less and less so. Just look at the tenure of executive roles. Or consider too the insufficiency of most strategic planning mechanisms which were unprepared for COVID or the Trump initiatives. 

Lindsay: As for the “A” in BANI: Anxiety… There is certainly an energy circuit of anxiety throughout my conversations with leaders. How do you coach leaders on addressing this?

Zander: Anxiety is often the fear of the future. There are a few things we do to address this. First, we recognize that people are generally not very good at assessing the future. They often anchor to the past, attach to a recent bias, and have not actively cultivated an imagination for what is adjacently possible. Luckily, this can be learned.  

Also, when people are anxious, their creative capacity is reduced, and they usually limit themselves to binary thinking. We are doing much more scenario planning work to imagine different futures, and to understand the nuanced likelihood for each (beyond simple dualities). We are working on cultivating our ability to meet these new moments openly and to create any influence strategies we might have.

Lindsay: That leads us directly to “Non-Linearity.” It’s an interesting term which makes me think of getting lost in an infinite loop as well as how typical “if/then” approaches have been and no longer apply. Coming to terms with this big shift, beyond what you just called binary-thinking, is so important for progress. Help us think through what living with non-linearity implies for today’s adaptive leaders.

Zander: Quite simply, non-linearity needs “the balcony perspective.” If cause and effect are far apart, and we have to do multi-variable calculus instead of addition, then we need both perspective and systems awareness. We need hot air balloon rides with mathematicians—assessing and calculating across the expanse of our communities and businesses.

Lindsay: I appreciate that because we are not seeing as many bold considerations of scenarios as I believe would be prudent – including related to leadership and the workforce.

Zander: Indeed, with the coming of AI and other pressures, I say to the CHROs I speak with that this is likely “the biggest workforce they’ll ever manage,” and they all nod. This is one of those tectonic plates that are being spoken of quietly, but not as loudly as may be productive for us all—and our “systems.” We see people all over hiding their use of AI and saying less and less risky things in public spaces. It is increasingly harder to gather perspective of current working conditions.

Lindsay: Finally, there is “Incomprehensible.” This feels like a dramatic term. And, yet leaders can get paralyzed by the speed and magnitude of the variables they face…how do they manage themselves?

Zander: What is understood today was incomprehensible yesterday. This is not meant to be dismissive. The point is, we have always had to make decisions with incomplete information, cross pressures and consequences. 
We often outgrow our coping mechanisms, skill sets, and social capital as we face new challenges. Can we adapt and evolve at the speed of change? That is a question in business, just as it is for any good parent as their kids grow. 

I always like to ask the question (rather than assume the binary): What percentage is known (comprehensible) and what remains a mystery?

Lindsay: That’s a great frame of reference. And then what?

Zander: Then, manage the hell out the part that is knowable and bring all your skills, attention, creativity and social capital to what is still possible and engage in those. Leaders need to be crystal clear on their criteria – which in this era of so many unknowns should be limited to a very few crucial elements. Creating space for evolving creativity and innovation is critical.